Saturday, August 29, 2009

GDP Revision Doesn’t Happen — EUR/USD Gains


EUR/USD reacted with a small drop immediately after the GDP release today but then retraced and is now trading with a considerable daily gain. The Q2 2009 GDP change value was expected to be negatively revised today but since the revision didn’t happen, traders react on a positive signal for the U.S. (and global) economy. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.4269.
U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the second quarter of 2009 according the latest estimate report. Previous estimate report also showed a -1.0% change. Traders expected a revision of the estimate to a drop by 1.5%. The GDP fell by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009.
Initial jobless claims declined to 570k last week, down from 580k a week before (revised from 576k). A decline to 565k was expected from this report.
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EUR/USD Down on Good U.S. NewsAugust 26th, 2009
After posting a clear doji candlestick yesterday, EUR/USD is now falling down despite the good fundamental reports from U.S. accompanied by the stock market growth there today. It’s a rather uncommon case for the dollar to gain with the good macroeconomic reports, but it looks like the traders are interpreting these positive factors as the signals that the U.S. interest rate will be raised soon. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4238.
Durable goods orders increased by 4.9% in July after falling by 1.3% in June. Median forecasts by the market analysts pointed at 3% gain for the report.
Seasonally adjusted annual rate of the new home sales in U.S. went up from 395k to 433k in July. A further drop to 390k was expected by the traders.
Crude oil inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, which is quite a insignificant change. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 0.7 million barrels during the same time.

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